CONTACTbolaite
Bolaite rubber products
ADD:Wencheng Industrial Zone, Jingxian County, Hebei Province
WEB:www.hbbolaite.com
E-Mail:hebeibolaite@163.com
157882969@qq.com
ADD:Wencheng Industrial Zone, Jingxian County, Hebei Province
WEB:www.hbbolaite.com
E-Mail:hebeibolaite@163.com
157882969@qq.com
The bearish atmosphere on the field is strong, and the rubber main force is going down unilaterally
The lack of strong driving force for the upward trend of rubber futures was affected by overnight macro factors, coupled with major commodity dips, resulting in a strong bearish atmosphere on the exchange. The main rubber players unilaterally declined, closing at 14490 yuan, down 2.72%.
The overnight Federal Reserve meeting gave the market pessimistic expectations, suggesting that economic stimulus policies may begin to contract within this year. The US stock market fell sharply, while the US dollar rose. Coupled with the continuous decline in commodities such as oil prices, copper, and iron ore, it ignited a bearish atmosphere on the market.
Regarding the current situation of the rubber market, Zhu Ziyue, an analyst at Hongyuan Futures Energy and Chemical, summarized that the main focus of attention from multiple parties is on the undervaluation of rubber, tight supply due to the epidemic, and expectations of future demand driven by infrastructure, reduced freight costs, and improved exports. However, bears believe that the impact of the epidemic is more concentrated on the demand side, and supply is expected to increase under good weather conditions. Demand is facing concerns about further slowdown in global economic growth.
Although extreme weather has occurred frequently both domestically and internationally this year, with Yunnan producing areas experiencing heavy rainfall, it will have a certain impact on rubber production. But the overall weather conditions are good, which is relatively favorable for rubber cutting. In terms of demand, precipitation affects construction and transportation, which is not conducive to the consumption of terminal tires, but entering the peak season may lead to improvement.
Another major factor affecting the rubber market is the global resurgence of the epidemic. However, exports from Vietnam increased by 47% month on month in July, indicating that the impact of the epidemic on supply has been falsified. Therefore, the impact of the epidemic is more on the demand side, as factories are relatively densely populated. Since the outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asia, tire factories in Thailand and other places have been closed or quarantined.
With the domestic off-season in August, the global rubber market will usher in a pattern of both supply and demand, and the significant release of overseas supply will be after October. Therefore, the supply pressure in the third quarter may not be reflected for the time being. However, the continued destocking of domestic port inventory still provides support for rubber prices. Thanks to the limited arrival volume at the port, the inventory in Qingdao Bonded Zone continued to decline slightly, and the absolute volume was also at a low level compared to the previous year. However, it is not advisable to look too high above, as it is still constrained by the overall supply and demand pattern.
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